NPJ-NH | 深度不确定性下的上海市洪水动态适应路径-流域人居系统研究中心

NPJ-NH | 深度不确定性下的上海市洪水动态适应路径

发布日期：2025-07-30

文章信息：Shan, X., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Wang, J., Yin, J., Lin, N., Wright, N., Li, M., Yang, Y., Wen, J., Qiu, F., & Scussolini, P. (2025). Dynamic flood adaptation pathways for Shanghai under deep uncertainty. npj Natural Hazards, 2, 21. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00072-9

整理人：徐嘉苗，2025级硕士研究生

整理时间：2025年7月30日

Abstract: Decision-making for flood adaptation in coastal cities is complicated by deep uncertainty about sea level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic trends, which increases the possibility of under- or overinvestment. Using the megacity of Shanghai as a case study, we apply the dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) framework to demonstrate robust and flexible decision-making under uncertainty. The framework integrates compound flood risk modeling of flood risk, economic evaluation, and dynamic adaptation pathways. Our results show that without adaptation, annual damages and annual casualties could increase by 86–167%, and 45–97 times, respectively, by the year 2100. ‘Hard adaptation strategies’ such as levees can reduce projected damages by 58–94%. In contrast, local scale ‘soft adaptation’ (flood-proofing buildings) is only effective and economically efficient in combination with hard adaptation (‘hybrid strategy’). The best economic performance is a hybrid strategy that starts implementing a large storage tank adding a mix of measures around 2050 (coastal wetlands, dry-floodproofing, and land elevation). Depending on how the future plays out, a hybrid strategy of a combination of a storm-surge barrier and coastal wetlands would yield high economic benefits after ~2070.

摘要：沿海城市洪水适应的决策因海平面上升、地面沉降和社会经济趋势的深度不确定性而变得复杂，这增加了投资不足或过度的可能性。本研究以上海这一特大城市为案例，应用动态适应性政策路径(DAPP)框架，展示了在不确定性下的稳健灵活决策。该框架整合了复合洪水风险建模、经济评估和动态适应路径。结果显示，若不采取适应措施，到2100年，年度经济损失和年度伤亡人数可能分别增加86-167%和45-97倍。"硬适应策略"（如堤防）可将预计损失减少58-94%。相比之下，局部规模的"软适应"（建筑物防洪）只有在与硬适应结合（"混合策略"）时才有效且经济高效。最佳经济表现是一种混合策略，从2050年左右开始实施大型储水箱，并增加一系列措施（沿海湿地、干式防洪和土地抬高）。根据未来发展情况，风暴潮屏障和沿海湿地的混合策略在约2070年后将产生较高的经济效益。

1. 研究背景

海平面上升、地面沉降与社会经济发展的不确定性使沿海特大城市（如上海）在制定长期防洪适应策略时面临“深度不确定性”，传统静态成本–效益分析易致投资过度或不足。