N-CEE | 三角洲动态系统韧性丧失的空间传递-流域人居系统研究中心

N-CEE | 三角洲动态系统韧性丧失的空间传递

发布日期：2025-07-30

文章信息：Wang, Y., Lin, J., Yan, Y., Zeng, Z., Liu, X., Wang, S., She, Z., Huang, Z., Sun, P., Zhao, T., Lin, K., Coco, G., & Cai, H. (2025). Spatial transmission of resilience loss in deltaic dynamic systems. Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 530. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02519-3

整理人：徐嘉苗，2025级硕士研究生

整理时间：2025年7月30日

Abstract: River and tidal dynamics regulate delta water levels, underpinning their ecological and socioeconomic stability. Deltaic water level resilience, the capacity to recover from disturbances, is vital amid growing climate and human pressures, necessitating a robust method to quantify and monitor it. Here we define water level resilience as the rate of water level recovery post-hydrodynamic disturbances. We quantify resilience trends using autocorrelation and propose a high-dimensional resilience transmission method based on a vine Copula model to estimate the spatial propagation of resilience loss across subsystems. Applying this framework to the Pearl River Delta in China reveals spatial heterogeneity and inter-subsystem transmission of resilience loss driven by anthropogenic activities. Our approach can be extended to other major deltas, despite differing hydrodynamic and human impacts. The findings underscore the need for tailored management strategies addressing specific drivers and subsystem interactions, offering critical insights into the global delta preservation amid escalating environmental challenges.

摘要：本研究首次在河流三角洲区域应用韧性指标，基于临界减速(CSD)理论量化水位韧性。选择珠江三角洲(PRD)作为代表性案例研究，因其复杂的河流-潮汐相互作用、快速城市化以及自1990年代以来广泛的人为改造(如筑坝、疏浚和采砂)。研究定义了水位韧性为水位在水动力扰动后的恢复速率，使用自相关量化韧性趋势，并提出基于vine Copula模型的高维韧性传递方法来估计韧性丧失在子系统间的空间传播。应用该框架揭示了中国珠江三角洲由人类活动驱动的韧性丧失的空间异质性和子系统间传递。该方法可扩展到其他主要三角洲，尽管水动力和人类影响不同。研究结果强调了需要针对特定驱动因素和子系统相互作用的定制管理策略，为全球三角洲在日益严峻的环境挑战中的保护提供了关键见解。

1. 研究背景

河口三角洲的水位恢复力（resilience）是维持生态与社会经济稳定的关键，但高强度人类活动（围垦、采砂、航道疏浚）和极端事件正导致系统恢复力下降，且其空间传播机制缺乏定量刻画。