文章来源：Pengjun Zhao, Qiyang Liu, Tianyu Ma, Tingting Kang, Zhengzi Zhou, Zhengying Liu, Mengzhu Zhang, Jie Wan. (2023). Policy instruments facilitate China’s COVID-19 work resumption. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 120(41): e2305692120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2305692120.
整理人：徐嘉苗，2021级本科生
整理时间：2024年6月6日
Abstract: Governments worldwide have announced stimulus packages to remobilize the labor force after COVID-19 and therefore to cope with the COVID-19-related recession. However, it is still unclear how to facilitate large-scale work resumption. This paper aims to clarify the issue by analyzing the large-scale prefecture-level dataset of human mobility trajectory information for 320 million workers and about 500,000 policy documents in China. We model work resumption as a collective behavioral change due to configurations of capacity, motivation, and policy instruments by using qualitative comparative analysis. We find that the effectiveness of post-COVID-19 recovery stimulus varied across China depending on the fiscal and administrative capacity and the policy motivation of the prefecture. Subnational fiscal and procurement policies were more effective for the wholesale and retail sector and the hotel and catering sector, whereas the manufacturing and business services sectors required more effort regarding employment policies. Due to limited prefectural capacity and wavering policy motivation, the simultaneous adoption of fiscal, employment, and procurement policy interventions endangered post-COVID-19 work resumption. We highlight the necessity of tailored postcrisis recovery strategies based on local fiscal and administrative capacity and the sectoral structure.
摘要：世界各国政府已宣布刺激方案，旨在COVID-19疫情后重新激活劳动力市场，从而应对与COVID-19相关的经济衰退。然而，如何促进大规模复工仍不明朗。本文旨在通过分析中国3.2亿工人的人口流动轨迹大数据及约50万份政策文件，以阐明这一问题。我们运用定性比较分析法，将复工模型化为一种集体行为变化，该变化受到能力配置、动机和政策工具的共同影响。研究发现，中国各地区疫情后的复苏刺激效果各异，取决于地方政府的财政与行政能力和政策激励力度。对于批发零售业和住宿餐饮业，地方财政与采购政策更为有效；而制造业和商业服务业则需要更多侧重于就业政策的努力。由于地方政府能力有限且政策动机摇摆不定，财政、就业与采购政策干预措施的同时采用，反而危及了疫情后的复工进程。我们强调基于地方财政与行政能力及行业结构制定定制化危机后恢复策略的必要性。
图 基于福格行为模型（Fogg Behavior Model）的理论框架。
注：（A）人群移动所需的能力(Ability)；（B）各地复工倾向性（Motivation）；（C）促使人群移动的工具（Policy Triggers）：各级政府发布的三种类型复工政策；（D）人群移动的结果（Target Behavior）：人群移动产生的复工率变化。
图 COVID-19复工率（CRR）与全国复工周期（WRP）的关系
注：（A）2020年2月17日到4月10日各地市复工人群移动的累计复工率效果变化（B）不同复工率地市的数量（花瓣面积）和中位数（花蕊长度）
原文链接：https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305692120
节选转引：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/F0MCHhU_21YnOgVdaq5S0g
