NS | 贫富差距越大，洪灾死亡率越高-流域人居系统研究中心

NS | 贫富差距越大，洪灾死亡率越高

发布日期：2025-08-05

文章信息：Lindersson, S., Raffetti, E., Rusca, M., Brandimarte, L., Mård, J., & Di Baldassarre, G. (2023). The wider the gap between rich and poor the higher the flood mortality. Nature Sustainability, 6(8), 995–1005. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01107-7

整理人：徐嘉苗，2025级硕士研究生

整理时间：2025年8月5日

Abstract: Economic inequality is rising within many countries globally, and this can significantly influence the social vulnerability to natural hazards. We analysed income inequality and flood disasters in 67 middle- and high-income countries between 1990 and 2018 and found that unequal countries tend to suffer more flood fatalities. This study integrates geocoded mortality records from 573 major flood disasters with population and economic data to perform generalized linear mixed regression modelling. Our results show that the significant association between income inequality and flood mortality persists after accounting for the per-capita real gross domestic product, population size in flood-affected regions and other potentially confounding variables. The protective effect of increasing gross domestic product disappeared when accounting for income inequality and population size in flood-affected regions. On the basis of our results, we argue that the increasingly uneven distribution of wealth deserves more attention within international disaster-risk research and policy arenas.

摘要：全球范围内许多国家的经济不平等程度都在上升，这会显著影响社会对自然灾害的脆弱性。我们分析了1990年至2018年间67个中高收入国家的收入不平等和洪水灾害，发现不平等的国家往往遭受更多的洪水死亡。本研究整合了573次重大洪涝灾害的地理编码死亡率记录与人口和经济数据，进行广义线性混合回归建模。我们的研究结果表明，在考虑了人均实际国内生产总值、洪灾受灾地区的人口规模和其他潜在的混杂变量后，收入不平等与洪灾死亡率之间的显著关联仍然存在。在考虑洪涝灾害影响地区的收入不平等和人口规模时，增加国内生产总值的保护效应消失。基于我们的研究结果，我们认为在国际灾害风险研究和政策领域，越来越不均衡的财富分配应该得到更多的关注。

1. 研究背景

全球范围内收入不平等持续扩大，而极端降雨与洪水事件因气候变化日益频繁。尽管高收入国家具备更强的减灾能力，但内部贫富差距可能显著影响洪灾死亡人数，却长期缺乏系统性实证研究。