文章来源：Hong Wang, Junguo Liu, Megan Klaar, Aifang Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Joseph Holden. (2024). Anthropogenic climate change has influenced global river flow seasonality. Science, 383, 1009-1014. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9501.

整理人：徐嘉苗，2021级本科生

整理时间：2024年6月2日

Abstract: Riverine ecosystems have adapted to natural discharge variations across seasons. However, evidence suggesting that climate change has already impacted magnitudes of river flow seasonality is limited to local studies, mainly focusing on changes of mean or extreme flows. This study introduces the use of apportionment entropy as a robust measure to assess flow-volume nonuniformity across seasons, enabling a global analysis. We found that ~21% of long-term river gauging stations exhibit significant alterations in seasonal flow distributions, but two-thirds of these are unrelated to trends in annual mean discharge. By combining a data-driven runoff reconstruction with state-of-the-art hydrological simulations, we identified a discernible weakening of river flow seasonality in northern high latitudes (above 50°N), a phenomenon directly linked to anthropogenic climate forcing.

摘要：河流生态系统已经适应了不同季节的自然径流变化。然而，表明气候变化已经影响河流流量季节性大小的证据仅限于局部研究，主要集中在平均或极端流量的变化上。本研究引入了分配熵的使用，作为评估季节间流量-体积不均匀性的稳健措施，从而实现了全球分析。研究发现，约21%的长期河流监测站在季节流量分布上表现出显著变化，但其中三分之二与年平均流量趋势无关。通过将数据驱动的径流重建与最先进的水文模拟相结合，我们确定了北部高纬度地区(50°N以上)河流流量季节性的明显减弱，这一现象与人为气候强迫直接相关。

图 50年(1965-2014)河流流量季节性趋势

注：绿色表示河流流量季节性（RFS）增加和分摊熵（AE）趋势降低；棕色表示RFS降低和AE增加趋势

图 河流流量季节性变化的潜在原因分类

图 1965-2014年北部高纬度地区（50°N以上）基于观测重建的全球水文模型分摊熵趋势比较

原文链接：https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi9501 

节选转引：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/10lCxWvegPYx88JH1EzA8Q