文章信息：Lidia Cano Pecharroman, & ChangHoon Hahn. (2024). Exposing disparities in flood adaptation for equitable future interventions in the USA. Nature Communications: 15(1), 8333. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52111-0
整理人：杨文，2023级硕士生
整理时间：2024年10月5日
Abstract: As governments race to implement new climate adaptation solutions that prepare for more frequent flooding, they must seek policies that are effective for all communities and uphold climate justice. This requires evaluating policies not only on their overall effectiveness but also on whether they benefit all communities. Using the USA as an example, we illustrate the importance of considering such disparities for flood adaptation through a FEMA dataset of ~ 2.5 million flood insurance claims. We use CausalFlow, a causal inference method based on deep generative models, to estimate the treatment effect of flood adaptation interventions based on a community’s income, racial demographics, population, flood risk, educational attainment, and precipitation. We find that the program saves communities $5,000–15,000 per household. However, these savings are not evenly spread across communities. For example, for low-income communities savings sharply decline as flood-risk increases in contrast to their high-income counterparts. Even among low-income communities, savings are >$6,000 per household higher in predominantly white communities. Future flood adaptation efforts should go beyond reducing losses overall and aim to equitably support communities in the race for climate adaptation.
摘要：随着各国政府竞相实施新的气候适应解决方案，为更频繁的洪水做准备，他们必须寻求对所有社区有效的政策，并维护气候正义。这就要求对政策进行评价，不仅要看其总体效力，而且要看它们是否有利于所有社区。以美国为例，我们说明了考虑这种差异的重要性，洪水适应通过FEMA数据集~ 250万洪水保险索赔。我们使用Causal Flow，一种基于深度生成模型的因果推理方法，根据社区的收入，种族人口统计，人口，洪水风险，教育程度和降水量来估计洪水适应干预措施的治疗效果。我们发现，该计划为社区每户节省了5000 - 15000美元。然而，这些节省并没有均匀地分布在各个社区。例如，与高收入社区相比，随着洪水风险的增加，低收入社区的储蓄急剧下降。即使在低收入社区，以白色人为主的社区每户的储蓄也要高出6000美元以上。未来的洪水适应工作应超越减少总体损失，并旨在公平地支持社区适应气候变化。
图 从FEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims数据集编译了的数据集（降水，洪水风险等）信息
图 CRS计划（CATE）为27个具有不同人口、收入和种族组成的社区类型节省的洪水损失
图 主要种族和少数民族的CRS储蓄和社区低收入作为降水量，教育程度和洪水风险的函数
原文链接：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52111-0
节选转引：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kDe9hdeItK5jM-s7xkScSg
